201803.31
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Inside Track- March 2018

This month’s topics: While most forecasts for global growth remain buoyant (at about 4% this year), there are a few warning signs that suggest it is about to slow. Slowing exports of Korean semiconductors (considered as the leading indicator of global trade growth) also signal weaker global trade growth in the coming months, and in…

201802.28
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Inside Track – Febuary 2018

This month’s topics: Deflation fears are gone and inflation expectations are up, but it is important to remember that potent structural factors restrain price inflation: ageing, technology and inequality – all three put a lid on long-term inflation. The US growth potential will only improve when companies invest in new technologies, instead of spending cash…

201802.02
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Inside Track – January 2018

This month’s topics: 2018 begins with a marked dissonance between improving economics and deteriorating politics – the greatest risk to the global economy. It is in trade that US retrenchment is most visible. Several comments recently made by US officials raise concerns about rising protectionism. The “global rules – based order” (often a metaphor for…

201801.11
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Investment View Q1 2018

At the moment, the Bull market still seems to have some steam left to run its course. However, investors should be very prudent when central banks decide to become “silent” killers of liquidity. We believe the withdrawal of liquidity (QT) by the Fed is so huge that it should negatively impact bond yields in USD….

201801.08
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Inside Track – December 2017

This month’s topics: In 2018, inequality will be by far the greatest socio-economic issue. In the short term, Trump’s $1.5tr tax cut will energize the US economy by boosting GDP growth, with two immediate consequences in 2018. Three recent developments support the argument that EU cohesion will strengthen. Brexit and Macron are powerful examples of…

201711.30
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Inside Track – November 2017

This month’s topics: Aggregate data about income or consumption are no longer a true reflection of ‘average’ living conditions, as inequalities become skewed between top and bottom. A flattening US yield curve (it was, earlier this month, at its flattest point in 10 years) is a warning sign. Optimists must remember that China’s GDP doesn’t…

201710.31
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Inside Track – October 2017

This month’s topics: The IMF has just increased GDP forecasts for all advanced economies – with the exception of Spain and the UK. The 19th Party Congress has sealed the status of Xi-Jinping – the most powerful Chinese ruler since Mao Zedong. To overcome the middle-income trap and to boost productivity, China aims to become…

201710.20
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Investment View Q4 2017

The optimism in the last 18 months has increased the global stock market capitalization with an epic $18.5tn, which is a bigger number than the GDP of the US. Today, corrections have proved limited The main US equity index S&P 500, for example, is currently going 333 calendar days without a higher than 3% dip…

201709.30
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Inside Track – September 2017

This month’s topics: There are no imminent signs that the global economic recovery is about to end. China’s peaceful ‘invasion’ of the world will be one of the big stories of the next 30 years. The backlash against the tech industry is becoming a major global trend, regulatory onslaught will slow their growth and squeeze…

201707.26
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Investment View Q3 2017

Our short term tactical indicators indicate a continuation of market corrections which started in June this year. Current markets are not supported by attractive valuations. Lack of liquidity and sudden panic can cause sentiment to change negatively further. However, later in the year, we expect markets to calm down and our technical indicators predict a…