201807.31
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Inside Track – July 2018

This month’s topics are: Trade tensions in general and the escalating trade war between the US and China in particular are transforming economic tailwinds into headwinds. Trump will favour bilateral negotiations by weakening alliances and multilateral organisations, worsening the deep retrenchment engulfing the world. The US President sees himself as the last opportunity his country…

201806.30
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Inside Track – June 2018

This month’s topics are: Mounting concerns about trade are exacerbating the deceleration in global growth expectations. The chance Trump will be re-elected is real, with a substantial likelihood that the same policy – America owes nothing to anyone – will be pursued. A rising dollar is bad for all risk assets, but this is particularly…

201805.31
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Inside Track – May 2018

This month’s topics: Global economic growth remains robust, but it is levelling off. Emerging markets (EM) are going through a rough patch, bound to worsen. Despite running at more or less full employment, the US economy is more fragile than it looks. Italy’s political convulsions are severely testing our bullishness (when compared to the rest…

201803.31
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Inside Track – March 2018

This month’s topics: While most forecasts for global growth remain buoyant (at about 4% this year), there are a few warning signs that suggest it is about to slow. Slowing exports of Korean semiconductors (considered as the leading indicator of global trade growth) also signal weaker global trade growth in the coming months, and in…

201802.28
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Inside Track – Febuary 2018

This month’s topics: Deflation fears are gone and inflation expectations are up, but it is important to remember that potent structural factors restrain price inflation: ageing, technology and inequality – all three put a lid on long-term inflation. The US growth potential will only improve when companies invest in new technologies, instead of spending cash…

201802.02
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Inside Track – January 2018

This month’s topics: 2018 begins with a marked dissonance between improving economics and deteriorating politics – the greatest risk to the global economy. It is in trade that US retrenchment is most visible. Several comments recently made by US officials raise concerns about rising protectionism. The “global rules – based order” (often a metaphor for…

201801.08
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Inside Track – December 2017

This month’s topics: In 2018, inequality will be by far the greatest socio-economic issue. In the short term, Trump’s $1.5tr tax cut will energize the US economy by boosting GDP growth, with two immediate consequences in 2018. Three recent developments support the argument that EU cohesion will strengthen. Brexit and Macron are powerful examples of…

201711.30
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Inside Track – November 2017

This month’s topics: Aggregate data about income or consumption are no longer a true reflection of ‘average’ living conditions, as inequalities become skewed between top and bottom. A flattening US yield curve (it was, earlier this month, at its flattest point in 10 years) is a warning sign. Optimists must remember that China’s GDP doesn’t…

201710.31
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Inside Track – October 2017

This month’s topics: The IMF has just increased GDP forecasts for all advanced economies – with the exception of Spain and the UK. The 19th Party Congress has sealed the status of Xi-Jinping – the most powerful Chinese ruler since Mao Zedong. To overcome the middle-income trap and to boost productivity, China aims to become…

201709.30
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Inside Track – September 2017

This month’s topics: There are no imminent signs that the global economic recovery is about to end. China’s peaceful ‘invasion’ of the world will be one of the big stories of the next 30 years. The backlash against the tech industry is becoming a major global trend, regulatory onslaught will slow their growth and squeeze…