201902.28
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Inside Track – February 2019

This month’s topics are: The global economy continues to head downwards while the financial markets are enjoying a spectacular recovery. In the coming years, the fallout from this clash for tech supremacy of the two giants will define much of the world’s economic and geopolitical landscape, hitting (or favouring) companies’ valuations in the process. The…

201901.31
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Inside Track – January 2019

This month’s topics are: Global economic data continues to weaken, with contractionary forces taking hold around the world. If just one word were to capture the mood in Davos, it would be gloom. Disenchantment and nervousness were pervasive at this year’s gathering. The business leaders and investors assembled in Davos know that the days of…

201812.31
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Inside Track – December 2018

This month’s topics are: Any possible economic upside is limited – looking forward from an economic, geopolitical and political standpoint, the good times are on hold. Two major economic uncertainties will dominate 2019. The French Yellow Vests’ eruption was sparked by a tiny gasoline tax and fuelled by social media. It’s about people from the…

201811.30
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Inside Track – November 2018

This month’s topics are: Global economic data continues to soften. The next few months will be characterised by a synchronised slowdown – the exact opposite of the synchronised upswing that occurred during most of last year. The draft agreement on Brexit has been approved by the EU but has yet to overcome its biggest hurdle….

201810.31
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Inside Track – October 2018

This month’s topics are: The global economic outlook is deteriorating, while a combination of (1) global debt overhang and (2) rising tensions (not only trade) between the US and China is imposing a hard ceiling on any possible upside. The era of “patriotic capitalism” is upon us. As inter-state competition and rivalry rises, countries all…

201809.30
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Inside Track – September 2018

This month’s topics are: This month marked the 10th anniversary of the Great financial crisis. What is its legacy? The trade war between the US and China is escalating and will endure. In the US and the UK – two countries at quasi-full employment – real wages are finally picking up. There are increasing fears…

201807.31
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Inside Track – July 2018

This month’s topics are: Trade tensions in general and the escalating trade war between the US and China in particular are transforming economic tailwinds into headwinds. Trump will favour bilateral negotiations by weakening alliances and multilateral organisations, worsening the deep retrenchment engulfing the world. The US President sees himself as the last opportunity his country…

201806.30
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Inside Track – June 2018

This month’s topics are: Mounting concerns about trade are exacerbating the deceleration in global growth expectations. The chance Trump will be re-elected is real, with a substantial likelihood that the same policy – America owes nothing to anyone – will be pursued. A rising dollar is bad for all risk assets, but this is particularly…

201805.31
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Inside Track – May 2018

This month’s topics: Global economic growth remains robust, but it is levelling off. Emerging markets (EM) are going through a rough patch, bound to worsen. Despite running at more or less full employment, the US economy is more fragile than it looks. Italy’s political convulsions are severely testing our bullishness (when compared to the rest…

201803.31
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Inside Track – March 2018

This month’s topics: While most forecasts for global growth remain buoyant (at about 4% this year), there are a few warning signs that suggest it is about to slow. Slowing exports of Korean semiconductors (considered as the leading indicator of global trade growth) also signal weaker global trade growth in the coming months, and in…