201710.20
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Investment View Q4 2017

The optimism in the last 18 months has increased the global stock market capitalization with an epic $18.5tn, which is a bigger number than the GDP of the US. Today, corrections have proved limited The main US equity index S&P 500, for example, is currently going 333 calendar days without a higher than 3% dip…

201707.26
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Investment View Q3 2017

Our short term tactical indicators indicate a continuation of market corrections which started in June this year. Current markets are not supported by attractive valuations. Lack of liquidity and sudden panic can cause sentiment to change negatively further. However, later in the year, we expect markets to calm down and our technical indicators predict a…

201704.22
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Investment View Q2 2017

Market valuations are dear, especially in the U.S. The inexperienced Mr. Trump could cause damage to stability and investors’ confidence. Central banks have to move very carefully withdrawing liquidity to maintain stability in the financial systems. Any set-backs in stock markets should be carefully analyzed to avoid traps. Basically, investors should stay optimistic for the…

201701.12
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Investment View Q1 2017

Considering the major events of 2016 – Brexit, the Italian referendum, Trump and the rise of nationalist China – are they just a coincidence? Things seem to change simultaneously and globally. If so, does this give rise to a more nationalistic, protectionist scenario? That would be an important shift, requiring us to rethink almost everything…

201611.07
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Investment View Q4 2016

It is very unusual that both stocks and bonds are expensive at the same time. US median stocks trade at their highest valuations ever, according to Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile, we have HSBC calling for an October 1987 type of crash, a sentiment echoed by numerous other investment banks. However, there just isn’t enough evidence that…

201608.10
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Investment View Q3 2016

It has been very easy to be negative this year given the constant bombardment of bad news. But important economic indicators in the U.S. and the relative strength of the U.S. and Asian stock markets are telling us that pessimism is not going to pay off. Even in Europe and despite the immigration and political…

201605.06
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Investment View Q2 2016

The less hawkish stance on interest rates by the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) and a comeback of the Oil price ignited a strong rebound of global stock markets, which erased the worst start to a year ever. Nonetheless, we still see several risks, leading us to position towards mainly capital protection strategies and neutral currency…

201601.28
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Investment View Q1 2016

A challenging start. Only three weeks into the year and 2016 is already shaping up to be a chaotic year in global economics and geopolitics. Global stock markets dropped by 8-12% in the first ten trading sessions and most of them are now 20% below their highs. Considering the speed and magnitude, the sell-off looks…

201509.30
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Investment View Q4 2015

Headwinds and Uncertainties. The psychology of financial markets has markedly changed since April, with most investors turning anxious or even fearful going into the last quarter of 2015. Firstly, worries were fuelled by the persistent news of China’s economic contraction leading to a huge stock market plunge in China and elsewhere. The unsuccessful (and unusual) measures…

201506.30
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Investment View Q3 2015

What causes long term bull markets to stay intact? The very simplified answer is; to be in an economic environment with the right balance between inflation, wage increases and productivity. Without wage increases consumer demand cannot grow, without productivity companies cannot afford to pay higher wages. With low input costs, together with higher productivity, profit…