Inside Track – July 2018
This month’s topics are:
- Trade tensions in general and the escalating trade war between the US and China in particular are transforming economic tailwinds into headwinds.
- Trump will favour bilateral negotiations by weakening alliances and multilateral organisations, worsening the deep retrenchment engulfing the world.
- The US President sees himself as the last opportunity his country has to keep China’s ascendancy in check; he’ll therefore do all he can to limit its technological, economic and strategic expansion.
- Recent data shows that investments in the US are becoming less attractive relative to those in the rest of the world.
- For the last decade in all rich countries, the curse of low wage growth has fed the mounting populist rebellion and concurrent backlash against technology. There is now one exception: the Eurozone.
- Extreme weather occurrences (in the form of heat waves) are currently engulfing much of the world. 2018 is likely to surpass the globe’s five hottest years on record (in rank: 2016, 2015, 2017, 2014 and 2010).
- The plunge of Facebook and Twitter (down by almost 20% each in a day) crystallizes the potential fragility of some companies in the tech sector and the coming divergence between those that do social media and others that provide tangible services (like shopping for Amazon).