Inside Track – June 2018
This month’s topics are:
- Mounting concerns about trade are exacerbating the deceleration in global growth expectations.
- The chance Trump will be re-elected is real, with a substantial likelihood that the same policy – America owes nothing to anyone – will be pursued.
- A rising dollar is bad for all risk assets, but this is particularly true for EM assets. As the Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet, it will drain dollar liquidity and will make $ denominated EM debt more precarious.
- China’s indebtedness continues to grow faster than its capacity to service the debt.
- Millennials, who are now coming of age and approaching their peak earning years, are going to reshape consumption into a much more fragmented market.
- Tech change and the coming wave of disruption are not linear but exponential.
- In a majority of rich countries, the migration issue is moving to the forefront of policy and discontent – a paradox, considering that for the first time since 2011, migration to the richest 35 countries has dropped.