Inside Track – March 2018
This month’s topics:
- While most forecasts for global growth remain buoyant (at about 4% this year), there are a few warning signs that suggest it is about to slow.
- Slowing exports of Korean semiconductors (considered as the leading indicator of global trade growth) also signal weaker global trade growth in the coming months, and in turn softer manufacturing output and investment.
- The real US policy intent is not trade, but technology.
- The Italian election’s results gives credence to the theory that regional inequality comes ahead of personal inequity as a cause of populist revolt.
- A recent study by the Bank of Japan is grist to our longstanding-conviction-mill that demographics will subdue inflation and real interest rates for decades.
- It’s hard to say exactly when corporate activism will have a defining impact on share performance, but the direction of the trend is clear.
- The prevailing common wisdom is that India will benefit from the demographic dividend of its youth bulge. Yet this is by no means a given.